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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' anger at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable comeback victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd